Global the electric two-wheeler market details
In 2023, the electric two-wheeler market will continue to maintain a steady growth trend. The demand for personal transportation tools has shifted from avoiding close contact to the pursuit of environmentally friendly and healthy travel methods. The rising market demand has attracted a large number of manufacturers to pour in, which has promoted the upgrading of product technology in the market and intensified market competition. At the same time, the sudden surge in market size has also caused a lot of product safety accidents, and under the attention of the government, local regulations have been tightened to standardize the development of the industry, and the market has entered a stage of orderly development. So, what is the future market size of the electric two-wheeled industry? How will the competitive landscape change? What is the future development trend of the product? Weilun has compiled a more comprehensive global electric two-wheeler market data and report.
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Market size and growth trends
Expansion of the two-wheeled electrification market
Changes in the global production landscape
Market competition has intensified
Scenario-based and intelligent development
Consumer demographics and preferences
The commercial two-wheeled market is growing
Local laws are tightened
1. Market size and growth trend
According to the Boston Consulting Group, as of May 2022, the size of the global micromobility market, dominated by electric two-wheelers, has reached nearly 100 billion euros, and it is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 30% in the next decade.
According to the latest data from market research agency MarketsandMarkets, by the end of 2022, the global electric bicycle (e-bike) market size reached 49.2 billion US dollars, with a total shipment of 51.25 million units.
At the same time, the sales of electric scooters in the global market are increasing, according to a study by Grand View Research, Inc., the global electric scooter market sales in 2021 were 6.351 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.3%, and the global electric scooter market is expected to reach $12.26 billion, growing at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2023 to 2030.
According to the latest report by Powering Renewable Energy, the size of the African motorcycle market is expected to grow to US$5.07 billion by 2027, and electric motorcycles will become the leading product for sustainable transportation transformation in sub-Saharan Africa.
2. Expansion of the two-wheeled electrification market
In 2023, the development rate of the global electric two-wheeled market will begin to slow down, but the market as a whole will still maintain a growth trend, with the electric two-wheeled market dominated by Europe and the United States beginning to expand, and the electrification revolution has also blown to Southeast Asia and Africa. Europe, America, Southeast Asia, India and other regions have different development logics and stages in the two-wheeler market. Europe and the United States have a strong bicycle riding culture, and prefer pedal bicycles; However, with the introduction of favorable policies and changes in consumer demand, Southeast Asia and other markets are gradually showing a trend of electrification.
Europe: From January to July 2023, the EU imported a total of 2,314,200 bicycles, with a total market value of €505 million, an increase of nearly 7.59% over the same period in 2022. Russia is the largest market for electric scooters in Europe, with sales of electric scooters in Russia increasing by 43% year-on-year to 245,000 units, according to Q1 sales statistics. Most residents see e-scooters as an economical alternative to taxis, car-sharing and private cars, with 85% of the vehicles purchased being e-scooters and only 10% being e-bikes.
United States: U.S. e-bike sales have been rising year after year, with an increase of nearly 200% from 2019 to 2021, and Statistic expects the North American e-bike market to reach $4.1 billion in 2028. It is claimed that the e-bike market in the U.S. market will exceed the million mark for the first time in 2023, with a growth rate of 25%.
However, compared with the scale of the traditional bicycle industry for sports and outdoor riding, there is still a lot of room for ebike penetration in the U.S. market.
Southeast Asia: Southeast Asia is the world's third largest two-wheeler market, relevant data show that in 2022, the motorcycle market size of the ten ASEAN countries will reach 10.6 million, and in the first six months of this year, Southeast Asia motorcycle sales will reach 7.5 million, which is one of the fastest growing regions in the world.
China: The latest data from the China Bicycle Association shows that 34 million electric bikes were sold in 2021. In 2021, 49.75 million electric two-wheelers were sold, and in 2022, the cumulative sales of electric bicycles in China will be about 50 million, and the number of social ownership will reach 350 million. The latest data from the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce shows that in 2022, the sales of electric motorcycles in China will be 7.6327 million. In 2021, the number of electric two-wheelers in China will reach 340 million, and the scale of China's electric two-wheeled market ranks among the top in the world.
3. Changes in the global production pattern
The global two-wheeler production landscape is undergoing significant changes. In the past, China dominated the global bicycle market, but with the rise of local production in Europe and the increased attractiveness of Southeast Asian markets, the global production landscape is starting to change.
Europe began to encourage the development of the local bicycle industry and attract the return of external production, in addition, Europe set up higher barriers to the import of bicycles, and at the same time strengthened the ability to produce and sell itself. In 2021, the EU produced a total of 13.5 million bicycles, an increase of 11% over 2020, extending the time to 2012 to 2022, the EU bicycle production increased by 29% in this decade, and the growth rate has been extremely fast in the past three years.On the other hand, with the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the attractiveness of the Southeast Asian market has increased. Taking Cambodia as an example, in the first nine months of 2022, the country's bicycle exports exceeded 700 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 104%, becoming the main bicycle supplier to the European Union.
According to the data of the China Bicycle Association, China's bicycle output in 2021 will be 76.397 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and China's bicycle industry will maintain a steady development trend in the future, and it is expected that China's bicycle output will reach 78.465 million in 2023.
According to China Customs data, from January to October 2023, the number of bicycles exported by China will be 33.32 million, with an export value of 2.199 billion US dollars, of which the total export volume of electric bicycles in 2022 will be 16.1661 million units, with a total export value of 5.336 billion US dollars.
Looking at China's bicycle export data from 2017 to January to October 2023, its export volume reached its maximum in 2021, and the export value reached its maximum in 2021, and has declined since then, but China is still the world's largest bicycle producer.
At present, the global two-wheeler production landscape is changing, China's leading position is being challenged, and the rise of the European and Southeast Asian markets has also led to a redistribution of global bicycle production share.
4. Market competition intensifies
With more and more entrants, after entering 2023, the industry will begin to see a lack of market demand and high inventory, and the news of bankruptcy and acquisition of leading companies has also come. For example, VanMoof, a well-known Dutch e-bike brand, which has received a total investment of nearly 200 million US dollars in two years and has more than 200,000 users worldwide, declared bankruptcy in August 2023 and was acquired by Lavoie, a subsidiary of McLaren, for a rumored price of "tens of millions of dollars".
The electric two-wheeler market as a whole has also entered a period of volatility adjustment, with the focus this year on bankruptcies, closures and financial difficulties, unlike previous high investment and market booms. Some areas are greatly affected by policies, and market demand is shrinking; Some dealers are facing funding breakdowns; The concentration of top players is high, and the competition tends to be homogeneous. Manufacturers who entered the game early have witnessed the rapid changes in the track, from 20 years may not worry about selling, to 21 years as long as the cost is controlled a little better, and the product homogenization is not worried about selling, and then this year manufacturers need to think about more competitive forging issues, from the riding culture, localized brands and overseas brands, product homogenization and other dimensions of mining.
5. Scenario-based and intelligent development
The production of key components of two-wheeled travel products is concentrated in a few leading manufacturers, and various hardware configurations are gradually converging in technological development, which once again narrows the space for differentiation to a certain extent, so the design that returns to the needs of the crowd is particularly important.
From the "last mile" to the distance of more than 10 kilometers, from commuting traffic, life travel to sports and entertainment, the car owners' car use scenarios are becoming more and more diverse, which also promotes the diversified development of products. The positioning of electric two-wheelers has also changed, no longer just a simple means of transportation, but gradually becoming a symbol of leisure, interest, sports and even fashion lifestyle. This trend reflects the diverse needs of consumers for products, including smart, convenient, and smooth.
On the basis of battery life, battery, power and other performance needs, the personalized needs of intelligent and multi-scene scenarios have also become a key factor in consumers' purchase decisions. In particular, intelligent functions, such as security and anti-theft, vehicle condition detection, intelligent charging, etc., are deeply loved by young and high-end customers. The future of vehicle intelligence is not only reflected in the safety and convenience of the vehicle, but also in the interaction and social interaction and experience throughout the entire travel process.
6. Characteristics and preferences of consumers
According to GlobalInfoResearch, the global market segment of e-bike products includes electric mountain bikes, e-road bikes, e-folding bicycles, and e-scooters. Among them, electric mountain bikes and electric road bikes are the main types in the market, accounting for 80% of the market share. Electric folding cars are portable, suitable for short-distance travel, and have a market share of about 15%. Electric scooters are an emerging product with the characteristics of lightweight, simple and easy to learn, suitable for urban short-distance travel and transportation, with a market share of about 10%.
Age is also a key differentiator in the choice of products. Teenagers and young adults are a group that usually pays more attention to the fashion, design and brand influence of products. They may be more inclined to choose products with bright colors and fashionable styles, and they will have a relatively high level of brand recognition.
Middle-aged people think more about practicality and economy when buying a car. They may focus on aspects such as battery range, charger efficiency, motor performance, etc., to ensure that the vehicle can provide reliable service and save on the cost of use.
Older people may pay more attention to the safety and ease of operation of the vehicle when buying a car. They may pay attention to factors such as brake system, shock absorbers, seat comfort, etc., to guarantee a safe and comfortable ride.
There are also more special segments, such as housewives who may value the functionality and convenience of a vehicle more when buying a car. They may pay attention to factors such as the size of the basket, the weight of the vehicle, the battery life, etc., to facilitate daily shopping and household chores.
According to Varla Scooter's user statistics, 76.83% of the buyers are male, and the age is mainly between 25 and 44 years old. This means that the main target users of electric scooters are professional scooter enthusiasts and long-distance commuters with financial strength.
Price is also an important consideration for consumers. According to the Maxfox Bike article, 66.8% of respondents cited price as the main factor when considering buying an e-bike. According to Varla Scooter's official website, the price of its three most popular products is around $1,000, and 50.4% of participants believe that low cost of ownership is an important factor in purchasing decisions.
The demand for safety is oriented to the consumption of large brands. According to consumer research firm GfK, the need for security will become a key factor influencing consumer behavior. As consumers become more concerned about safety, brand-oriented consumption patterns will become more prevalent. Big brands are often more popular because they have stricter quality control standards and better supply chain management systems to provide consumers with more reliable product assurance. This trend is especially pronounced among young people, who are more inclined to choose brands with good reputation and high quality guarantees.
7. The commercial two-wheeled market is growing
In addition to the personal travel market, with the maturity of the short-distance delivery service industry, the rapid growth of B-end demand for instant delivery and cargo delivery, and the gradual change of consumption structure, the commercial field will become an important growth driver of the market.
The development of e-commerce shopping has opened up a large area of growth space for the e-freight market. Before the pandemic, 40% of delivery deliveries in New York City were door-to-door, and today it is 80%, and since NYC DOT launched its commercial cargo bike pilot program in 2019, New York City has seen a significant increase in cargo bike deliveries. With more than 130,000 trips and more than 5 million parcels delivered in 2022, electric freight products have become an efficient delivery model in the last-mile logistics relay race, and have unmatched advantages in reducing carbon emissions.
In August 2019, Americans spent $500 million on grocery delivery, and demand slowed down after the epidemic, but in the first half of 2022, Americans still spent $2.5 billion on grocery delivery, while commercial motorcycles in Europe and the United States are sold at high prices and asset leasing concepts are mature. For example, for the takeaway platform, the leasing method can not only flexibly adjust the number of delivery vehicles according to the order demand, but also reduce the huge expenditure on purchasing and maintaining vehicles, which can effectively solve the pain points of the last mile micro-travel and micro-logistics.
8. Local laws are tightened
In recent years, the electric bicycle market has entered a stage of rapid expansion, and the number of products has skyrocketed, on the one hand, people's travel is more convenient, on the other hand, there are more and more safety accidents caused by electric bicycles, such as frequent fire accidents caused by indoor charging, illegal modification, lithium battery failure and other reasons in the United States.
In order to effectively eliminate the safety hazards of such products, New York City announced last year that it would ban the sale of electric bicycles with batteries that do not meet UL standards, raising the market entry threshold; In 2022, an electric scooter accident in Paris killed 3 people and injured 459 people, and the rising number of accidents made the public have serious doubts about the safety of electric scooters, and electric scooters have been banned from the road since September 1 last year; Burning Man organizers also warned participants that if the e-bike's behavior does not improve, it will be added to a ban list; In addition, some university campuses have also begun to ban e-bikes and e-scooters, and regulations on electric two-wheeled products have gradually been tightened.
For the electric bicycle industry, the strengthening of supervision means higher production standards and stricter market access thresholds, which will promote the standardization of the market; For consumers, they will buy higher quality products and services, but they will also face higher prices due to the increase in production and sales costs.
In 2023, the development of the electric two-wheeled travel market will enter a stable period, and the global market demand will slow down, but in the long run, the demand for overseas bicycles will remain relatively stable, and the electrification reform will begin to expand to more markets and products, and the market and consumer demand will continue to grow. After bidding farewell to the bonus period, in the face of the new market situation, manufacturers began to tap and meet consumer needs from multiple dimensions, and the intensification of market competition promoted the upgrading of product technology, in addition, the improvement of local regulations will also drive the industry to develop in a more sustainable direction.
SOURCES: ASKCI, BCG, BICYCLE-GUIDER, WILDTO, EQUALOCEAN, EBICYCLES, MARKETS, DELOITTE, EBRUN
